Epl Winner 2020 Prediction
Bet £10 Get £20 in Free Bets T&Cs apply. £10 min cash bet at 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. 2 non-withdrawable £10 tokens: accept in 7 days, valid for 7 days from acceptance (ex. E/Ws & Multiples), stakes not returned. Discover the history of the Nike ball and its 21-year association with the Premier League, from the Nike Geo Merlin in 2000/01 to the Nike Flight in 2020/21. Explore now Latest FPL News. Five teams feature in the forecasted top fours, but only Manchester City and Liverpool feature in all 25. Tottenham, who 21 out of 24 pundits picked to finish third last season, do not make.
The English Premier League 2020/21 season will commence on September 12. Andrew Beasley takes a look at what the stats from last season suggest about the leading title contenders. Who will win the Premier League? Read on to inform your EPL champion and top four predictions.
2020/21 English Premier League title predictions
As a result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic causing a three-month hiatus during last season, the break between the 2019/20 and forthcoming 2020/21 English Premier League seasons will be far shorter than usual. Teams will have notably less time to make improvements to their squad before the latter begins (although the transfer window will remain open until October 5) and arrange pre-season matches in which to try tactical changes.
It therefore seems reasonable to assume that proceedings will likely resume in the same vein as the end of last season, meaning we can use data from it to predict who will do well and badly in the upcoming campaign. Here’s a look at the race for the top end of the Premier League.
Who are the 20/21 Premier League title favourites?
As far as the bookmakers are concerned, the race for the title should once again be a two-horse race. Manchester United may have finished last season in good form and Chelsea have invested heavily in the likes of Timo Werner and Hakim Ziyech, but the odds suggest there will be an inevitable tussle between Manchester City and Liverpool once again.
Manchester City need to respond more effectively from losing positions than they did last season.
The market implies that City and defending champions Liverpool have approximately a 44% and 35% chance respectively of being crowned champions next May, with no other team presently sporting a likelihood of over 10%.
On the face of it, the expected goal (xG) statistics favour Pep Guardiola’s team. According to FiveThirtyEight’s data, their xG difference across the season was 24 better than Liverpool’s. On the basis of assigning a win in a match when a team has at least 0.5 expected goals more than their opponent, they would have earned eight more points than Liverpool and won the league.
However, there are pertinent truths hidden in their overall figures for the season. City would frequently run up big goal tallies (both expected and actual) against teams once the contest was already clearly over. They are the masters of piling on pressure when already leading by a couple of goals.
At the same time, they were not so great when they were behind. According to Understat, their expected goal difference when losing by one goal was only 0.82 per 90 minutes, suggesting they were often not dominant enough to recover a game when losing.
Conversely, this was Liverpool’s great strength in 2019/20, particularly prior to when they were confirmed as champions with seven games to spare. Their underlying stats were similar irrespective of whether they were ahead, level or trailing in a match, offering them an advantage over their title rivals.
This was reflected in their results too; Liverpool went behind in ten Premier League matches and recovered to win six of them last season, whereas City only emerged victorious from three of the 13 games in which they trailed at any point.
The shots on target statistics also favoured Jurgen Klopp’s side. Liverpool had more attempts on target than their opponents in 34 of their 38 matches, while City only achieved that feat in 31. City were also outshot on six occasions to Liverpool’s three.
Therefore, while City are worthy favourites in light of their largely unstoppable attacking prowess, if they don’t respond more effectively from losing positions than they did in 2019/20, Liverpool should be well set to retain their title.
If you’re looking for an outsider value bet in this market, then the statistics suggest that Chelsea are a more promising pick than the actual third favourites Manchester United.
The Blues were the better of the two sides in both the aforementioned xG and shots on target measures and arguably should have comfortably finished third last season if they were not undone by finishing at both ends of the pitch.
Werner’s arrival should help with that, as he scored nine more goals than expected across his four years with RB Leipzig, per Understat. Therefore, a lot will rest on whether Kepa Arrizabalaga can improve his performances in goal or Frank Lampard secures the services of a better keeper. Either way, their underlying statistics means they look a better bet than United.
2020/21 English Premier League top four predictions
Naturally, the teams mentioned thus far are the logical favourites to assume the top four spots, so is there any hope for the likes of Tottenham, Arsenal or anybody else?
Based on last season's stats, Leicester look the best bet to overhaul one of the traditional 'Big Six'.
The two sides from north London are more difficult to judge based on last season’s figures, as they both switched their managers during the 2019/20 campaign. For the period Jose Mourinho was in charge, Tottenham had the fourth best record in the division, while Arsenal performed better than several of their fierce rivals during Mikel Arteta’s stint.
However, there’s no escaping the fact that both clubs had dismal underlying numbers last season, both with or without their current bosses. Their xG figures imply that both teams should have endured mid-table finishes, which falls to even lower when analysing their respective shots on target stats.
Therefore, while the odds might portray Leicester and Wolves as the best of the rest beyond the traditional ‘Big Six’, their stats were actually more encouraging than both Tottenham and Arsenal during 2019/20.
Much was made of Leicester’s poor second half to the season – indeed, they ranked in the bottom half of the table for the final 19 games. However, their xG stats remained fairly strong throughout the campaign and their chances of success depend largely on Brendan Rodgers’ ability to steer the team around on the results front.
Meanwhile, Wolves experienced a lot of tight games last season and will no doubt do so again, meaning they will be relying on the small margins rolling in their favour. They will also need to recover physically from what became a 13-month long competitive campaign in 2019/20.
Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea lead this market and it’s hard to make a case that they won’t be the top four come the end of the season. Based on last season’s associated numbers, Leicester look the best bet to overhaul one of them.
Read Andrew's preview of the 2020/21 Premier League relegation contenders here.
Bet with Pinnacle for the best Premier League odds ahead of the 2020/21 season. Read our Premier League predictions for insight into every Premier League gameweek.
The 20 teams for the 2020-21 Premier League season are confirmed, opening day is almost here and we are releasing a prediction for the standings.
That’s right.
[ VIDEO: Premier League highlights ]
With Fulham, Leeds United and West Brom sealing their spots back in the Premier League, these standings prediction are very difficult.
But with the 2020-21 season kicking off in less than 48 days from now due to all of the schedule changes.
Epl 2020 21
Of course, transfers in and out will heat up between now and the transfer window closing on Oct. 5, so a lot can change with all 20 teams.
It will be intriguing to see if teams who finished the 2019-20 season in red-hot form can carry that into the start of next season given the short break over the summer.
Champions Liverpool and Manchester City will be the favorites to win the Premier League title, while Man United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham will battle it out for the remaining two Champions League spots as they are rebuilding and nowhere near being title contenders, although Man United are closer than the other three.
[ PHOTOS: Ranking the Premier League kits for 2020-21 ]
At the bottom, it’s tough to see how the three newly-promoted teams can prosper given the short turnaround between the 2019-20 season and the 2020-21 campaign but Leeds seem the most prepared to solidify their spot in the Premier League.
In the fight for Europe, Wolves, Leicester and Everton look like the best bets of challenging the established top six but watch out for Southampton. Other surprise packages could be Brighton and Everton, while you worry for Burnley and Crystal Palace given a lack of squad depth, plus Sheffield United and Newcastle United limped to the finishing line in 2019-20.
All in all, a lot will change throughout the 2020-21 season, so we will do another one of these predictions post midseason.
For now, here’s our 2020-21 Premier League standings prediction and how we think the table will look when the final whistle blows on May 23, 2021.
Prediction for the 2020-21 Premier League standings
Joe Prince-Wright
1. Manchester City
2. Liverpool
3. Manchester United
4. Chelsea
5. Arsenal
6. Tottenham
7. Leicester City
8. Wolves
9. Everton
10. Southampton
11. Sheffield United
12. Burnley
13. Leeds United
14. Newcastle United
15. Brighton
16. Aston Villa
17. West Ham
18. Crystal Palace
19. Fulham
20. West Brom
Nick Mendola
1. Manchester City
2. Liverpool
3. Chelsea
4. Manchester United
5. Tottenham Hotspur
6. Arsenal
7. Everton
8. Wolves
9. Leicester City
10. Brighton and Hove Albion
11. Southampton
12. Newcastle United
13. West Ham United
14. Crystal Palace
15. Sheffield United
16. Aston Villa
17. Leeds United
18. West Bromwich Albion
19. Burnley
20. Fulham
Andy Edwards