Martingale Baccarat
Like most gamblers, I’m always looking for a way to beat the casinos. Over the years I’ve looked at just about every possible way to win, including the Martingale system. The Martingale system is usually used on an even-money bet, and it often provides short term profits.
The Martingale Strategy is one of the simplest and straight forward strategies of all the betting systems to play Baccarat. This betting system follows a simple theory, which says to keep doubling your bet until you get a winning hand. Finally, when you hit a winning hand, you can recoup all. Normally, Baccarat is considered as one of the casino games that provide players with a low house edge. This actually means that when the Martingale system is used in baccarat, players are truly able to generate massive winnings easily. Still, every player should be aware of the fact that they may enter in a long-lasting losing streak, too. Martingale baccarat strategy: This strategy was made popular in the 18th century in France. You can also use this strategy to play other table games like blackjack and roulette. The Martingale strategy says that a particular hand is bound to win at some point and you should double down on.
But the problem is that eventually you hit a long losing streak and it wipes out all of your previous wins.
I’ve used the Martingale a few times on even money bets, but I don’t do it often because I know the long term result is going to be bad.
But what if you use it with a bet that pays higher than 1 to 1?
This is what you’re going to learn in this post.
I chose the baccarat tie bet because it’s easy to make and has a strong return of 8 to 1. You might even be able to find a few tables offering 9 to 1.
Here’s an overview of exactly how the Martingale system works. You can learn more about it at the Wikipedia Martingale page.
When you use the Martingale system on a bet that pays 1 to 1, you start with a base bet and double it every time you lose. When you win, you go back to your base bet. When you double your bets after losses, it increases your possible pay back. When you win, you get enough to cover all of your losses and show a profit equal to your base bet.
Here’s an example:
You start with a base bet of $10 and bet on black on roulette.
You lose the first bet, so you bet $20 on the next spin.
You lose the second bet, so you bet $40 on the next spin.
You lose the third bet, so you bet $80 on the next spin.
You win the fourth bet, and receive your $80 bet back and $80 for the 1 to 1 pay out.
In this series, you lost bets of $10, $20, and $40, for a total of $70. The last bet of $80 was returned on the win, so it doesn’t count in the calculations. The $80 win takes care of your $70 in previous losses and leaves a $10 profit.
The profit equals the amount of your base wager.
Many players fall into the trap of believing this is a sure way to make money.
And as long as you win a decision before you run out of money or reach the table limits, everything is good.
But the problem is that extended losing series happen more often than most players think.
Here’s the series of bets you have to make on an extended losing streak:
$10 – $20 – $40 – $80 – $160 – $320 – $640 – $1,280 – $2,560 – $5,120
With each wager, you’re betting a larger amount for the chance at a $10 profit.
Is it smart to risk $2,560 or $5,120 for a $10 profit?
As you can see, you also need a large bankroll to try to use the Martingale. If you have extra money you can afford to lose and want to play with the Martingale, you can.
But in the long run you’re going to lose a big chunk of money.
You’re also going to have a hard time finding a casino game that offers table limits from $10 to over $1,000.
Here’s a list of bets in the casino that pay 1 to 1:
- Roulette red, black, even, odd, 1 -18, and 19 – 36
- Blackjack
- Craps pass line and don’t pass line
- Baccarat player and dealer, but the dealer bet pays a commission on wins
- Pai Gow Poker
Baccarat Tie Bet
Now let’s see what happens when you use the Martingale system with a bet that pays out higher than 1 to 1. The baccarat tie bet pays out 8 to 1 in most casinos. A few pay 9 to 1, but these tables are rare.
The house edge on the tie bet that pays 8 to 1 is 14.36%, which makes it a terrible bet in most cases. A tie bet that pays 9 to 1 has a house edge of between 4.8% and 4.9%, depending on the number of decks in the shoe. For a bettor who makes flat bets, these are both terrible wagers. You can find dozens of other bets that offer better odds in the casino.
The main difference when you’re using the Martingale on an even money bet and when you’re using it on a bet that pays a higher return is you don’t double your bets as often.
A tie happens in baccarat just a hair over 9.5% of the time. This means that, on average, a tie happens 9.5 times out of every 100 hands, or 95 times out of 1,000. In other words, a tie happens between 1 out every 10 and 1 out of every 11 hands.
The important thing to remember is these numbers are an average. A tie might happen twice in 10 hands, or it might only happen once in 25 hands in the short run.
Let’s look at some actual numbers. The next section covers the numbers for an 8 to 1 pay out and the following section runs the same numbers for a 9 to 1 pay out.
I’m going to use a $10 base bet because it makes the numbers easier, and it’s a realistic representation of what you can actually do in a real casino.
When you win on a $10 tie bet you get your $10 bet back and a payout of $80. The good news is if you win on one of your first few wagers you make more than a $10 profit.
But what happens when you have a series of losses?
If you lose seven hands in a row, your total amount wagered is $70. You might think that you need to double your bet on the eighth hand, but you can actually play 8 hands before doubling. This is because the bet pays 8 to 1 instead of 8 for 1.
In other words, you get back your bet plus the payment of 8 times your bet.
Here’ how the math works on a series of 8 bets:
The total amount you bet on a series of 8 $10 wager is $80. If you win the 8th bet, you get back your $10 bet plus $80. The$80 win covers the $80 you’ve wagered, and the$10 bet you get back leaves you with a $10 profit.
Here’s a chart to show the same thing in a different way.
| Amount Bet on Hand | Total Amount Wagered | Return Including Base Bet |
| $10 | $10 | Loss |
| $10 | $20 | Loss |
| $10 | $30 | Loss |
| $10 | $40 | Loss |
| $10 | $50 | Loss |
| $10 | $60 | Loss |
| $10 | $70 | Loss |
| $10 | $80 | $90 |
These numbers look good, but remember that on average a tie only happens between 1 out of every 10 and 1 out of every 11 hands.
This is where most players make a mistake. Because they understand on a 1 to 1 pay out you double your bets after every loss, they think they won’t have to double their bets again on a higher pay out until after the 16th hand if they don’t have to double it the first time until after the 8th hand.
But this isn’t true.
When you double your bet to $20, it pays out $160 on the bet when you win. So in order to make an overall profit when you win you have to keep the total amount wagered at $160.
Here’s what happens if we continue the chart above if you continue losing.
| Amount Bet on Hand | Total Amount Wagered | Return Including Base Bet |
| $10 | $10 | Loss |
| $10 | $20 | Loss |
| $10 | $30 | Loss |
| $10 | $40 | Loss |
| $10 | $50 | Loss |
| $10 | $60 | Loss |
| $10 | $70 | Loss |
| $10 | $80 | Loss |
| $20 | $100 | Loss |
| $20 | $120 | Loss |
| $20 | $140 | Loss |
| $20 | $160 | $180 |
If you win the 12th bet, you have an overall profit of $20, instead of $10. The other option is to make a 13th bet, at $20, when you lose the 12th bet, but when you do this and win the 13th bet you break even instead of showing a profit. Making the 13th bet without doubling to $40 makes the total amount wagered $180, and you get back $180.
Here’s an extended chart to show how quickly the bets need doubled on an extended losing streak. It shows the return in 3rd column if you win the hand. This chart is based on making bets that always show a profit instead of taking the chance of breaking even on a few hands.
| Amount Bet on Hand | Total Amount Wagered | Return Including Base Bet |
| $10 | $10 | $90 |
| $10 | $20 | $90 |
| $10 | $30 | $90 |
| $10 | $40 | $90 |
| $10 | $50 | $90 |
| $10 | $60 | $90 |
| $10 | $70 | $90 |
| $10 | $80 | $90 |
| $20 | $100 | $180 |
| $20 | $120 | $180 |
| $20 | $140 | $180 |
| $20 | $160 | $180 |
| $40 | $200 | $360 |
| $40 | $240 | $360 |
| $40 | $280 | $360 |
| $40 | $320 | $360 |
| $80 | $400 | $720 |
| $80 | $480 | $720 |
| $80 | $560 | $720 |
| $80 | $640 | $720 |
| $160 | $800 | $1,440 |
| $160 | $960 | $1,440 |
| $160 | $1,120 | $1,440 |
| $160 | $1,280 | $1,440 |
| $320 | $1,600 | $2,880 |
| $320 | $1,920 | $2,880 |
| $320 | $2,240 | $2,880 |
| $320 | $2,560 | $2,880 |
You can learn a couple things from this chart. The first thing to notice is if you lose 27 hands in a row, when you make the 28th wager, the total amount bet is $2,560. Starting with a base bet of $10, this requires a large bankroll, and a large risk, in the hopes of a positive return.
While a tie will happen at least once in 28 hands most of the time, sometimes it won’t. The few times it doesn’t, you have a couple problems. The first problem is your bankroll has to be large to continue, quickly reaching $10,000 or higher.
The second problem is finding a casino that will let you bet $640 or more on the tie bet. At the minimum, you’re probably going to have to move to a higher limit table, because a spread of $10 to $320 on the same table can be hard to find–not to mention $640 or higher.
The other thing to notice is the amount you profit goes up, unlike when you use the Martingale on 1 to 1 wagers. If you win the 13th hand, your profit is $160. Winning the21st hand is a profit of $640. The profit potential on the 25th hand is $1,280. Finally, the profit for winning the 28th hand is $320.
For you to have a complete understanding of the quickly increasing numbers, here’s a chart continuing where the last one left off. I only include it for reference, because the amount needed to continue is only used by high rollers.
In other words, I don’t expect anyone reading this page to actually need these numbers, because if you’re risking such a large amount there are better ways to gamble.
| Amount Bet on Hand | Total Amount Wagered | Return Including Base Bet |
| $640 | $3,200 | $5,760 |
| $640 | $3,840 | $5,760 |
| $640 | $4,480 | $5,760 |
| $640 | $5,120 | $5,760 |
| $1,280 | $6,400 | $11,520 |
| $1,280 | $7,680 | $11,520 |
| $1,280 | $8,960 | $11,520 |
| $1,280 | $10,240 | $11,520 |
| $2,560 | $12,800 | $23,040 |
| $2,560 | $15,360 | $23,040 |
| $2,560 | $17,920 | $23,040 |
| $2,560 | $20,480 | $23,040 |
You need to understand one final thing before we move to the next section. The odds of a tie are the same on every single hand. This means that even if you’ve lost 20 hands in a row, the odds of a tie on the 21st hand are the exact same as on any other hand. Your chances of a tie don’t go up just because it hasn’t happened in several hands.
This is where many players make a mistake. While it’s true that the number of times a tie happens will end up being about 9.5% of the time, this number is based on hundreds of thousands of hands or more. This means that even if a tie doesn’t happen for 100 hands, it still isn’t due to hit.
9 to 1 Pay Out
You don’t need to read all of the intro material for the 9 to 1 pay out, because it’s all the same as the 8 to 1. Here’s the chart using the Martingale system on the baccarat tie bet that pays 9 to 1.
Rumus Baccarat Martingale
| Amount Bet on Hand | Total Amount Wagered | Return Including Base Bet |
| $10 | $10 | $100 |
| $10 | $20 | $100 |
| $10 | $30 | $100 |
| $10 | $40 | $100 |
| $10 | $50 | $100 |
| $10 | $60 | $100 |
| $10 | $70 | $100 |
| $10 | $80 | $100 |
| $10 | $90 | $100 |
| $20 | $110 | $200 |
| $20 | $130 | $200 |
| $20 | $150 | $200 |
| $20 | $170 | $200 |
| $20 | $190 | $200 |
| $40 | $230 | $400 |
| $40 | $270 | $400 |
| $40 | $310 | $400 |
| $40 | $350 | $400 |
| $40 | $390 | $400 |
| $80 | $470 | $800 |
| $80 | $550 | $800 |
| $80 | $630 | $800 |
| $80 | $710 | $800 |
| $80 | $790 | $800 |
| $160 | $950 | $1,600 |
| $160 | $1,110 | $1,600 |
| $160 | $1,270 | $1,600 |
| $160 | $1,430 | $1,600 |
| $160 | $1,590 | $1,600 |
| $320 | $1,910 | $3,200 |
| $320 | $2,230 | $3,200 |
| $320 | $2,550 | $3,200 |
| $320 | $2,870 | $3,200 |
| $320 | $3,190 | $3,200 |
When you compare the chart for the 9 to 1 pay out with the 8 to 1 chart, you can see that you pick up an extra bet at each level. At the base bet level, you can make 9 bets instead of 8, and at each of the higher levels you can make 5 bets instead of 4. This goes a long way into controlling the increasing total bankroll needed to keep making wagers.
You still win a higher amount than $10 profit if you hit a tie before the last bet in a series, but winning the last bet before doubling only produces a $10 profit. This isn’t the case on the 8 to 1 chart after you double the first time.
Without a doubt, the 9 to 1 game gives you a better chance to keep making bets until a tie happens, but the 8 to 1 game gives you more chances to win a higher profit if you can win before you run out of money.
If you’ve read this far, you’re probably still considering using the Martingale system with the baccarat tie bet. The charts show both the good and the bad, but I admit that they make it look like it’s worth the gamble.
But the truth is that no system can beat a game with a fixed house edge like baccarat in the long run.
Even if you use the Martingale with positive results for a long time, if you play long enough you’re going to lose. The Martingale system simply can’t overcome the house edge. In the long run you’re going to lose roughly 14.36% on the 8 to 1 tie bet and just under 5% on the 9 to 1 tie bet.
If you’re willing to lose a couple thousand every once in a while and enjoy winning most of the time, go ahead and use this system. The truth is that using it you’re going to win most of the time you play. But the amounts you win are small in comparison to the few times you lose.
When you use the Martingale system on the baccarat tie bet, just make sure you completely understand that a big loss will come eventually. As long as you’re ok with this fact, have fun while you win and good luck at the table.
One Last Warning
Most casinos and dealers are honest, but if you’re using the system on this page you need to know how baccarat hands are played and scored, and you need to watch every hand. A dishonest dealer could award a tie hand to the banker or player bet if you have a large bet out.
Here’s an example:
You have a bet of $160 on the tie and the other players have a combined $200 on the banker and $200 on the player. On a tie the casino pays out $1,280, but if the dealer says the hand is a banker or player the casino only pays out $200 on the player or $190 on the banker.
You probably won’t ever see this happen, but it only needs to happen once to cost you a great deal of money. It’s always better to be safe than sorry, so make sure you always know the actual outcome of the hand. Don’t get lazy and leave it up to the dealer to make the right decision.
I’ve always been interested in the Martingale system. I understand the long term math, but it gives you a good chance to have short term wins. Now that you see the difference between using it with even money wagers and a higher pay out bet, you can decide if using it is worth the risk.
You will lose money in the long run. If you believe otherwise, you’re making a costly mistake. But, if you understand the risk, aren’t gambling with money you can’t afford to lose, and want to experience the thrill of gambling for short term profits, all I can do is wish you the best of luck. Just don’t start believing it’s a sure thing, even when you win several times in a row.
I’ve seen gamblers who claim they understand the eventual losing streak is coming start believing that they’re never going to lose after winning 10 playing session in a row. They start betting more and more, and eventually gamble money they can’t afford to lose chasing their losses. Don’t let this happen to you.
Related
Did you know that the Martingale system dates back all the way to the 18th century? It became a big thing and a huge part of the casino industry thanks to John Henry Martingale, the owner of different betting places and houses in Great Britain in the 18th century. If you wish to know a bit more about this system, keep on reading! It is a simple strategy that is great to go with if you’re trying to boost your winnings and earn more cash + it is super easy to understand.
What is the Martingale betting system?
The theory is quite simple, as well as easy to understand. You can’t always lose and that everyone will have their good days and streak of wins. How to approach this? Each player should increase their bet every time they lose. However, they should decrease it when generating wins. This way, your money will stay at its optimal amount + you will not lose it as quickly, but the tactic will allow you to make a decent profit. Luckily for you, at casino.netbet.com.mx you can play loads of different games and apply this tactic to earn some serious coin! Choose between jackpot, slots, as well as some of the hottest and newest games on the market.
8 strengths and weaknesses of Martingale Gambling Strategy
1. You can try out the classic martingale
This means that you should bet on a certain color since the gambling system doesn’t get any simpler than that. There are 18 numbers to choose from, and two colors – black or red. Place the lowest amount of money on your preferred color. As you are losing double the bet, but reduce it if you start to win. This classic martingale is one of the most used tactics worldwide, and it is super easy to understand and apply to most games.
2. There is also the mini martingale
You should set some limits on your bets. This will help players who don’t know where and when to stop. Rather come mentally prepared and have one number in your mind before you start to bet it all. Just know how far are you willing to go, and approach with the mini system. In some cases, this tactic works even better!
3. Grand martingale
This way of playing and betting is a bit more aggressive, but it does help people who are trying to play fast and with bigger sharks. What does this mean? You will need to double the wager when losing. By doing so but also adding an extra sum while not doubling it, you will enjoy a bigger reward! However, you will have to cash out loads of money and invest a larger bankroll.
4. You can try out the anti-martingale
This is also called and known as Reverse Martingale which allows you to double the stakes after striking a win. On the other hand, you can’t increase your money after you lose. You can win a lot of cash with this system, but you have to be an amazing player with loads of wins. This means that you should play a game that really suits you, and where you feel the most confident to win.
5. Roulette games
As previously explained, this is the best game to play when it comes to the Martingale system. The only downside is that you need a massive bankroll, but you are also in need of a large win in a short-time period.
6. Craps
Did you know that you have the lowest house edge with this game? You should proceed with caution, and only make bets if you are a serious player, a professional, and someone who rocks in the game of craps.
Martingale Baccarat
7. Blackjack strategy
The Martingale system here allows the player to double up their winnings. Blackjack is quite fun to play + it has amazing odds for beating the house edge.
8. Baccarat
You can play Baccarat since it has a low house edge. If you’re an aggressive and fast player, you should play Baccarat and you will generate massive wins quickly and easily thanks to the Martingale system.
What are the pros of the Martingale betting system?
Wondering what are the pros and cons of the Martingale betting system? Since now you know how to play some casino games, make sure that you also understand these pros:
- Your chances to win some big money are strong, as long as you double your bet each time you lose and don’t feel any pressure or anxiety while playing
- Great system for beginners and pros
- Great for short term betting
- Helps you recover any loses
- Easy to understand and apply to most games
- The most common system worldwide
- Often popular and found in-person and online casinos
What are the cons of the Martingale betting system?
When it comes to its cons, you should know that every tactic does have its flaws. Here they are:
- It may suit you more if you have a bigger bankroll, since this is not the cheapest solution either
- You might experience some maximum betting caps since this is a rule in some online and in-person casinos. This automatically means that you will have a hard time getting back your money if you’re losing it.
- Your odds are not that high for long-term gameplay, they are best for quick and short-tempered people and players
Ready to try out this system?
So, are you ready to give this system a go? How often do you gamble anyway? Everyone will easily understand its basics + you will enjoy playing your favorite casino game ever, but with a new approach! Simply go for the Martingale system and win some big money, but know when and where to stop! In time and with some trials and errors, you will understand that this system might be the best go-to for short-tempered players who wish to win some big money.